In our modern world, we like to think we have reframed time. We think we live in a domain of linear progress, of unending innovation moving us forward. When we look back on the Industrial Revolution, it’s easy to think it’s been a fairly gradual, straight path forward to today. From horses and carriages, to trains and automobiles, to airplanes and rockets; the astounding technological progress of the last couple centuries makes it easy to project a straight line forward of unending progress.

Yet, when you look deeper, the one thing that becomes clear is that we don’t encounter linear progress. Our society has a subtle yet steady rhythm of generational cycles that carry our society through good times and bad, progress and regression, peace and war.

In 1997, William Strauss and Neil Howe released their book “The Fourth Turning: What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America’s Next Rendezvous with Destiny”. This book delves into six centuries of history, American and British before it, to determine a crucial question: does our modern society succumb to the cycling of generational change? And if so, can we predict it? Their answers were a resounding yes – with some guesses on timing looking ahead.

Strauss and Howe explain how there are four turnings, each one the length of a generation (about 20-25 years), altogether adding up to the length of a long human life. These turnings are driven by the natural development of generational personalities, with each one truly different than the last. Our history, and very likely our future, cycled through these turnings, producing wars, cultural revolutions, and periods of true stability and peace.

As much as we like to think our modern world isn’t subject to something as archaic as cycles, it is. And right now, we are in Strauss and Howe’s infamous Fourth Turning, the Crisis period. What does that mean? How long will it last? Does it mean catastrophe for our world? It might look that way. But the answer is no – this is a story of hope. Crisis periods have come many times – and they always end. Then give way to something better.

Over the next few posts, I’m going to dive deep into their work in both The Fourth Turning from 1997 and Neil Howe’s follow-up book, The Fourth Turning is Here, released just this past fall. I highly recommend reading Howe’s latest book or, even better, both it and the original if you truly want to understand this fascinating concept. Once I get through the broad ideas, I have a final piece to offer – how I think this broad cycle will impact agriculture. Let’s dive in.

What Are These Generational Cycles?

The Fourth Turning: The Crisis

In the Roaring 1920’s, America was propelled by a never-ending series of technological change. It was a thrilling time for the so-called “Lost Generation”, but the rot was there: government was increasingly seen as irrelevant, the culture of the time was one of celebrity, looser moral standards, and increasing debauchery.

Then came October 29, 1929: Black Tuesday. The stock market crash, while foreseen by some, took the public by surprise. By 1933, national economic output had declined by a third, unemployment grew to 20 percent, and many people lost everything when their banks collapsed. All the scandal, spiritual paralysis, and debauchery of the ‘20s was no longer acceptable; in fact, behaviour like that was seen as shameful, as people were forced to do all they could just to survive. Like the flipping of a switch, “acceptable” behaviour changed dramatically.

Then came World War II.

In the 1920’s, parents strove to protect their children from the chaotic energy of the time, producing a generation of kids that were seen as sheltered, even spoiled. Could they really handle the veracity of the real world when they left home? This sheltered, protected generation was educated, community minded, and close with their parents. Few expected them to be able to endure true hardship, let alone the horrors of total war.

But today, we call them the Greatest Generation: the GI’s who fought and won World War II. With a suddenness that surprised their elders, this generation went to war with an enthusiasm and fervour. This is why they’re referred to as the “Hero” generation. The Fourth Turning has occurred many times over the past six centuries, with varying degrees of suffering and destruction. Every one included total war.

The First Turning: The High

America left the war behind with a powerful, glowing sense of national optimism. This was a nation that could do anything. Rather than conquering Europe, as many countries feared and even expected them to do following the war, America used its new-found influence and power to project its ideals, not its geopolitical might. It provided security for world trade to explode.

Looking back on the late 1940’s through the early 60’s, America was a different country compared to today.  Crime and divorce rates were at an all-time low, people moved to the gleaming new suburbs in droves, and public cooperation was a powerful force. Any labour strikes were quickly ended with amicable terms on both sides. New institutions were built. Infrastructure developments were massive in scope, built quickly, and stood the test of time. The GI’s that won World War II used their victorious spirit to build the world we have today. It was the Spring following the Winter. This was a time of boundless optimism, economic prosperity, and tremendous investment in industrial infrastructure.

Yet, this High was a period lacking in memorable heroic deeds or popular celebrities. As all First Turnings before it, it was a wonderful period for those of the majority – racism and sexism were buried beneath the quest for progress in rebuilding a nation. Culture was an afterthought. And that would bring about an Awakening – the Second Turning – that began on November 22, 1963, with the assassination of John F. Kennedy.

The Second Turning: The Awakening

The days of American Graffiti were over. It was as if a different country emerged from the death of its president than it had been before it. The confidence America held was failing, and with it, faith in the public institutions faded rapidly. Corporations, police, government, and even parents were not trusted in the same way as the 1960’s wore on. Riots and protests rocked America to its core. Crime rates increased substantially. The Vietnam war was a disaster.

People looked inward and started asking tough questions: was economic progress really even a positive thing, or does it just create greed? This was a different society than the post-war glow that came before it. In the stagflation of the 1970’s, the environmental movement got its start, quickly gaining popularity with a society that no longer trusted its institutions to do the right thing.

But at the same time, during this period of upheaval, America developed cultural art that we still hold in high esteem to this day. It produced an era of music and film that was far more personal, questioning, and emotional than what had come in the High. Racism and sexism, buried under the rug in the High, finally came to the forefront. Today, we call this period the “Consciousness Revolution”.  And, just like the First Turning before it, the Second Turning had an end, too. By the early 1980’s, the wild oscillations between utopian and dystopian visions of the future had cooled – because the Awakening had triumphed.

The Third Turning: The Unravelling

In the High, George Orwell wrote about an all-powerful government crushing the individual. It was easy to feel that way at the time. The boundless optimism of the First Turning pushed all cultural concerns aside for the building of institutions. If that continued, what would be left for the individual? Well, that problem had been solved in the 1960’s and 70’s with the Awakening: American citizens crushed Big Brother instead. Interestingly, 1984 is the year we transitioned from a second to a third turning. Society had been transformed from a community-planning, project-building, government-trusting group to a culture of individuals making their own way, telling the government to stay out of their lives.

Americans turned cynical, begetting the loyalty employees once gave their employers in return for job security, digging into conspiracy theories, widening political disagreements, and distrusting anyone with power. Dystopian sci-fi, crime, and fights with evil international corporations ruled the cinema in the 1980’s.

But, looking back, the 1990’s in particular were a time of substantial economic progress: deficits were paid down, the stock market roared, crime rates were down. America projected its power all over the world with the ending of the Cold War. And yet, people at the time widely distrusted the good news and progress, thinking there would be another shoe to drop at any moment. Polling in the mid-90’s showed most people believed America’s best days were behind it, despite tremendous progress on nearly all fronts.

Personally, this individualism sounds pretty great. And I wish we had more of it today. But it didn’t last. The Global Financial Crisis in 2008 changed everything once again – the Fourth Turning had arrived.

But before we go into that, we’ve observed that these cycles change. But why do they change? What forces cause them? Let’s dig into that next.

Generations and Archetypes

Every generation achieves cultural dominance in their middle age years. Just like each turning isn’t anything like its immediate predecessor, the generational cycling has a similar pattern. Strauss and Howe observed that each generation, played out over the four turnings, assumes a similar archetype. They called them Hero, Artist, Prophet, and Nomad.

For those keeping score at home, you might have noticed each of the turnings are roughly 20-25 years in length, roughly the length of a generation. The four turnings together comprise a long human lifetime – generally, about 75-85 years. Howe and Strauss call this a saeculum. Each generational archetype moves through the normal stages of life: childhood, young adulthood, mature adulthood, and elderly years. In their middle age years, from roughly 40-60, they tend to dominate society (although that has changed as we are aging more gracefully – there are more elderlies in positions of power than there used to be). As these generations turn over control from one to the next, they create the “Turnings.”

Here is a list of the last several generations – and their archetypes – as we know them today (sourced from The Fourth Turning):

Don’t get hung up on specific years and dates.  This is a continuum. These are gigantic groups of more than a hundred million people in the United States alone – they will be filled with individuals who don’t conform to the generational archetype. But by and large, our generations have and do develop distinct personalities.

An Artist is born during the Crisis and enters young adulthood in a High. Parented by Heroes, they are protected from the horrors and challenges of the Crisis. They don’t get the opportunity to participate. Their protected childhood leads to a risk-averse generation, comfortable using the tools their Hero parents create, refining them, and conforming to the rules of the time. The last Artist generation is the Silent, those that were too young to fight in WWII but had parents or even older siblings that did. Following the war, they married young, raised large families, and moved into the gleaming 1950’s suburbs. Today, some of them are still in positions of power, like US President Joe Biden, but most survivors of this elderly generation long since moved into gated community retirement.

The Prophets are born in a High and enter young adulthood in an Awakening. They are the elders during the Crisis. The last Prophet generation is the Boomers, my parents’ generation. Coming of age in the Awakening of the 1960s and 70s, this generation was more interested in morality, in doing the right things, not so much in doing them right. As they continue to hold power, they preach values and wage scorched-earth culture wars. Not having known a real crisis, they unfortunately lay the groundwork for the next one.

The Nomads are our Generation X, born in the 1960s and 70s. Parented completely differently than the overly indulged Prophets, they were left with minimal supervision and guidance as children, learning early not to trust society’s institutions. Gen X children remember faraway, unnecessary and unsuccessful war, urban protests, divorces, and broken homes. They find success elusive because of their strong individualistic nature and distrust of large institutions. As parents, they are dedicated to “being there” as much as possible, trying to give their children a better experience than they had. Born during the Awakening, they enter midlife in a Crisis. Following WWII, this generation led the world into a time of healing; they are well suited to calming the world after the Crisis is over.

And finally, the Hero generation, born during the Unraveling and coming of age in the Crisis. Raised by protective parents, this group resolves the great Crisis, hence the name Hero. The last generation of Heroes was the GI’s, who fought and won WWII. As children, this sheltered group got new playgrounds, scouting clubs, vitamins, and child-labour restrictions. They came of age with the sharpest rise in schooling ever recorded. They patiently endured the depression, and, despite their elders claiming they were too soft to go to war, they heroically fought across the world.

Their victory led to the High to follow, a time of building, creating, and developing, which they were uniquely suited for. They stay focused on solving the great challenges until their elder years, when they watch younger generations work through cultural upheaval. Some even live to see the next Crisis.

It’s the constellation of generations that generates each Turning. During the Crisis era, Prophets enter elderhood, Nomads midlife, Heroes enter young adulthood, and Artists childhood. Every Turning has had these same archetypes emerge, one after another, in that exact order, and every Crisis has had this constellation. Generations that are shaped by history become generations that then shape history.

The Fourth Turning is Here

There’s a reason superhero movies were so popular as Millennials, like myself, were growing up. There’s a reason the upbringing of the GI generation sounds so familiar. The Millennials are the next Hero generation. The parallels to the GI’s are substantial. Fictional heroes like Superman and Batman emerged as the GI’s were coming of age, in the late 1930’s – the last time superheroes were as popular as they are today.

We are in the midst of the Millennial Crisis. Just like each crisis period before, it’s not an easy time. War, conflict, debt and currency crises, riots, depression and nihilism – this is what a Fourth Turning looks like. How will it end? What can we expect? Are we headed for catastrophe? Is this generational cycle stuff even scientific, or is it just fitting history into a nice pattern? I’ll go into all that in my next post.